Gold-to-Silver Ratio

Market Insights & Commentary

Last generated:

• At 63.8:1, the ratio sits in the middle of the Equilibrium zone (50–80), with silver at $67.84 — down 9.7% from last week's $75.12 high — while gold fell 3.2% to $4,329; the dominant macro driver is the May nonfarm payrolls surprise (172K jobs vs. 80K consensus, released June 5), which sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.54%, strengthened the dollar, and pushed CME FedWatch rate-hold probability for the June 17 FOMC to 99.4%. Central bank gold purchases hit 244 tonnes in Q1 2026 — the highest quarterly value on record — with Poland adding 31 tonnes and China's PBoC extending its buying streak to 18 consecutive months (8 tonnes in April); Goldman Sachs now projects central banks will buy ~720 tonnes in 2026 (~60t/month), providing a structural floor under gold near $4,300. Shanghai's silver premium remains elevated at 11.1% ($76.62/oz vs. $68.94 Western spot on June 5), signaling persistent Asian physical demand despite silver's 7%+ weekly decline. The ratio last sat near this level in 2014 Q2 (63.1:1), when gold was $1,327 and silver was $21.02 during a post-taper normalization; from that touchpoint the ratio widened to 75.3:1 by 2014 Q4, a 19% move against silver over two quarters. That historical parallel suggests the current 63.8:1 reading is a bearish inflection point for silver vs. gold in a rising-rate environment, unless the June 10 CPI print softens enough to reverse hawkish Fed expectations.
• The critical level to watch is silver's $65/oz support (current: $67.84) alongside gold at $4,329, with the ratio at 63.8:1. If $65 holds: the Shanghai physical premium of 11.1%, silver's sixth consecutive annual supply deficit (46 Moz per Silver Institute), and India's 15% import duty restricting supply all support a rebound toward $73–78/oz, compressing the ratio back to 56–59:1 (lower Equilibrium). If $65 breaks: the next support is $60–62/oz, widening the ratio to 70–72:1 (upper Equilibrium, approaching the Buy Silver signal at 80:1), fully unwinding the Q2 2026 silver rally and revisiting levels last seen in 2025 Q2. The near-term catalyst is the May CPI release on June 10, 2026, followed by Chair Warsh's first FOMC decision and updated dot-plot projections on June 16–17: a CPI reading below 3.5% (vs. current 3.8%) would ease hawkish pressure, weaken the dollar, and compress the ratio toward 57–59:1 by end-Q3 2026; a CPI at or above 3.8% would cement rate-hold expectations, strengthen the dollar, and push silver through $65 toward the 70–72:1 ratio zone.